What is the Pickens Plan?
Posted on September 3, 2008
Filed Under Jonathan Carr | 4 Comments
T. Boone Pickens, founder and chairman, BP Capital Management, is principally responsible for the formulation of the energy futures investment strategy of the BP Capital Commodity Fund and the BP Capital Equity Fund. With more than $4 billion under management, BP Capital manages one of the nation’s most successful energy-oriented investment funds. Pickens frequently utilizes his wealth of experience in the oil and gas industry in the evaluation of potential equity investments and energy sector themes. He has not been shy in predicting oil and gas prices and — more often than not — has been uncannily accurate.
The Pickens Plan is very simple. We need to reduce our addiction to foreign oil. In 1970, we imported 24% of the oil we use. This year, we have imported close to 70% of the oil we use. These statistics clearly represent a dependency that must be rehabilitated. The Pickens Plan will attempt to do just that.
The price we pay for that 70% of foreign oil is about $700 billion (4 times the annual cost of the War in Iraq). According to the Pickens Plan, the next 10 years will cost $10 trillion which accounts for the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind. Another interesting statistic, according to Pickens Plan, is that 25% of the worlds oil demand will be used by 4% of the population.
WIND
The Pickens Plan really likes the idea of wind energy. In fact, the plan even refers to The United States as being the Saudi Arabia of wind power as illustrated below:
Studies from around the world show that the Great Plains States are home to the greatest wind energy potential in the world — by far.
The Department of Energy reports that 20% of America’s electricity can come from wind. North Dakota alone has the potential to provide power for more than a quarter of the country.
Today’s wind turbines stand up to 410 feet tall, with blades that stretch 148 feet in length. The blades collect the wind’s kinetic energy. In one year, a 3-megawatt wind turbine produces as much energy as 12,000 barrels of imported oil.
Wind power currently accounts for 48 billion kWh of electricity a year in the United States — enough to serve more than 4.5 million households. That is still only about 1% of current demand, but the potential of wind is much greater.
A 2005 Stanford University study found that there is enough wind power worldwide to satisfy global demand 7 times over — even if only 20% of wind power could be captured.
Building wind facilities in the corridor that stretches from the Texas panhandle to North Dakota could produce 20% of the electricity for the United States at a cost of $1 trillion. It would take another $200 billion to build the capacity to transmit that energy to cities and towns.
That’s a lot of money, but it’s a one-time cost. And compared to the $700 billion we spend on foreign oil every year, it’s a bargain.
NATURAL GAS
The Pickens Plan does not just include the power of wind. It also focuses on using natural gas for automotive fuel.
Natural gas is cleaner:
Natural gas is the cleanest transportation fuel available today.
According to the California Energy Commission, critical greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas are 23% lower than diesel and 30% lower than gasoline.
Natural gas vehicles (NGV) are already available and combine top performance with low emissions. The natural gas Honda Civic GX is rated as the cleanest production vehicle in the world.
According to NGVAmerica, there are more than 7 million NGVs in use worldwide, but only 150,000 of those are in the United States.
The EPA estimates that vehicles on the road account for 60% of carbon monoxide pollution and around one-third of hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide emissions in the United States. As federal and state emissions laws become more stringent, many requirements will be unattainable with conventionally fueled vehicles.
Since natural gas is significantly cleaner than petroleum, NGVs are increasing in popularity. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach recently announced that 16,800 old diesel trucks will be replaced, and half of the new vehicles will run on alternatives such as natural gas.
Iran is switching to natural gas for automotive transportation. You know why? So that they can sell all of their oil to countries like The United States.
Natural gas is cheaper:
Natural gas is significantly less expensive than gasoline or diesel. In places like Utah and Oklahoma, prices are less than $1 a gallon. To see fueling stations and costs in your area, check out cngprices.com.
SUMMARY
Since 98% of natural gas comes from North America, it is easy to see how this would reduce our dependency compared to 70% of foreign oil. Since 22% of our US energy comes from natural gas, by utilizing wind for energy, natural gas can be shifted to the automotive industry.
Often, people suggest plans to reduce our addiction to oil, but they do not act. We all know that talk is cheap. The Pickens Plan might not be the “right answer,” however, it is sure better than “no answer.” There are people who are pushing nuclear and solar energy as save-all solutions. There are also people pushing for more drilling in Alaska and other places off the US coast. You know what? That’s great! Do it! There is no clear-cut single solution. It is going to take a collaborative attempt of all technologies and resources to get us out of this mess. Why can’t we drill, build nuclear plants, install solar panels, AND put the Pickens Plan into effect? The whole is greater than the sum of it’s parts. The bottom line is that the Pickens Plan is a solid attempt to get the ball rolling in the right direction by utilizing wind and natural gas to reduce our addiction and dependency on foreign oil. You can count me in!
REFERENCES
All text in italics represent content from The Official Pickens Plan Web Site.
All images also from The Official Pickens Plan Web Site.
Another School Shooting. This Time It’s In My HomeTown
Posted on August 21, 2008
Filed Under Michael Paskel | 3 Comments
It happened again-this time in my own back yard.
On Feb. 15th 2008 we were jarred with the news of another school shooting, this one in Illinois.
A man walked onto a college campus and emptied his guns into students killing 7 including himself. This, only one week after two students at La. Tech College had been murdered by a fellow student who then took her own life.
My mind immediately returned to Blacksburg Virginia more than one year ago and the tragedy we witnessed there. I wrote this piece then and I am publishing it again here. Unfortunately the latest victim of a school shooting is Ryan McDonald, a sixteen-year-old Central High school student in Knoxville Tennessee, my home town. You can substitute the name of the killer and the number of victims as well as the location of each of these tragedies, but the substance of the piece remains in tact. At least 4 of the guns used in these tragic killings were purchased legally.
When will we enact meaningful gun control in this country?
It seems about time to review the mass murder in March 2007 on the campus of Virginia Tech. Any one of a thousand different circumstances could have changed ever so slightly the life of Seung-Hui Cho and ultimately prevented the slaughter. A family more open and in touch with the feelings of this troubled child, a more prudent reign by the hand of his parents preventing his immersion in violent video games, a less indulgent attitude by the few people who attempted to engage him, or perhaps a more strident effort by teachers and authority figures might have deviated this monster from the collision course he was on.
But of all the constituent parts of this tragedy, none leaps out more glaringly than the fact that barring a legal loophole that allows federal law to trump Virginia state law, the gun sale to Mr. Cho by an arms merchant in Roanoke was completely legal. Cho passed the cursory background check required in Virginia in spite of the fact he had been under criminal investigation in the previous 18 months for stalking two fellow V-Tech students and had been found by a judge to be a threat to himself and others as well as the assessment of one of his teachers that he was the most disturbed human being she had ever encountered. He was even committed for observation but released with a prescription and the well wishes of the Doctors who treated him. He later walked into a gun store and out the same day with the semi-automatic weapon he would us to calamitous effect 3 weeks later.
Without question guns are dangerous. And while some would argue that a gun purchased legally by a responsible person for defensive intentions is a right we all enjoy, it begs the question of whether it’s the “right” thing to do. Guns maintain their lethality regardless of the motives behind their acquisition.
I used to own handguns. I was most proud of my “Dirty Harry”, a stainless steel .44 magnum with a 6” barrel and a wooden stock. One day while at work someone came into my house and relieved me of that gun. I have often wondered where it went and to what purpose was it utilized. Did it end up on the streets in the hands of a criminal? Was it used in the commission of a murder? I’ll never know. But what I intended to be self protection became instead, a source of potential threat to me and others
The U.S has the highest murder rate by handguns of any of the developed countries on the planet. There will be more murders in the U.S. by hand guns today and tomorrow than the UK will experience this year. Australia had 50 gun murders last year compared to almost 12,000 in the U.S: at that rate that’s a Virginia Tech killing spree every single day in our country. Film maker Michael Moore in his documentary “Bowling for Columbine” opined,” Are Americans gun crazy or just crazy?”
But it’s not just guns that are acquired legally that pose a threat; a prison inmate survey conducted in 2005 showed that of those inmates who used a gun during the commission of the crimes for which they were incarcerated, 80\% of those weapons were acquired either from a friend a relative, or by an-illegal gun sale. This points out that the only way to reduce or eliminate the use of guns in crime is to reduce or eliminate the pool of guns available to criminals and potential criminals.
The legality and availability of handguns in this country are in stark contrast to research that has shown a direct correlation between handgun ownership and gun death. The more guns available, the more gun deaths in a given population. The same is true in other countries as well.
For example, the UK banned handguns in 1997 with the exception of replicas and air guns. Those legal guns now make up the largest category of guns used during the commission of crime in the UK. In other words criminals will use whatever weapon they have at their disposal.
I submit that while it is true that a baseball bat can be lethal in the hands of a determined criminal, Mr. Cho would not have attained the infamy now attached to his memory had he arrived on campus April 16,2007 with a Louisville slugger instead of the Glock he purchased legally nor would the county coroner be signing a purchase requisition for the replacement of 33 body bags.
The May 22nd, 2008 edition of the Oak Ridge Observer , the local paper in which my column appears, featured in it’s Senior Snapshot section, a photograph of graduating seniors from Oak Ridge High School. When I first saw that picture I was stunned. Four lovely young ladies, each regaled in Prom dresses, posed with each of their hands feigning the holding of a gun; the index fingers pointing skyward- assuming the stance of a shooter about to draw down on a target. It would seem that the menacing presence of guns and gun violence has now been accepted as a cultural icon in my community.
Gun violence is accepted as a cultural icon in my community, and probably yours as well.
Given the deaths of students at the hand of other students in this country, I could not imagine a more vile and inappropriate display.
We are much too cavalier in our fast-food Play Station world with the influences we allow to acquaint themselves with our kids. Someone needs to stand up and say ³wait, this is wrong² and they need to say it often and loudly. I have personally helped carry a coffin to its rest containing what was left of a 16-year-old classmate of mine, killed by another of my friends while they were at school. It was a very bad day.
I would gladly surrender my right to gun ownership to bring all these kids back to life or just one of them or to prevent the next killing.
I wish I lived in a country where the lives and welfare of our children meant more to us collectively than our individual right to own a weapon.
Network Engineering and Administration
Posted on August 19, 2008
Filed Under Jonathan Carr | 3 Comments
I. What is Networking?
A single computer with a decent set of productivity tools (word processing, spreadsheets, relational databases, etc.) is capable of increasing the productivity of a human being. Given that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, networking computers together can increase the productivity of all aspects contained within a professional organization. Networking is the concept of sharing computer resources over a network medium (wired or wireless). Such a concept is responsible for sparking the internet as we know it today. In the late 1960’s a group of universities tried out this idea and it was so successful that the Department of Defense used the methodology to create an indestructible communications network which could remain active even under a severe nuclear strike on our country. This was an amazing advancement from sneakernet (saving to a disk and walking the data to another computer). Up until the early 1990’s this network was only capable of transferring data in the form of text from one computer to another. Then something happened. It became possible to also transfer images, video, sound, and hypertext links. This was the birth of the world wide web (WWW). The world wide web is a term that can be used interchangeably today with the term internet. You could say that the world wide web was the expansion of the internet into the hands of the global public, however, today they are virtually the same thing. In the mid-to-late 1990’s, animation and greater interactivity became possible on the internet, thanks to the high-level object-oriented programming language called Java. It then became possible to implement input/processing/output on a web page which allowed people to shop online. You know this as e-Commerce. After the millennium, a new generation of the internet was born (web 2.0) thanks to web technologies such as collaborative authoring (wikis), social networking (blogs), syndication (RSS feeds), and many open-source methodologies. Here we sit today, with the internet inter-twined in our daily routines and rituals.
Getting back to networking, organizations have found it possible to create mini-internets withing their infrastructure. These mini-internets act and behave just like the world wide web visible through a web browser. They are called intranets and they are made possible only through networking. An intranet can connect executive administration, accounting, operations, marketing, sales, human resources and many other aspects of business together while remaining private to the outside world. Sometimes, an intranet must be accessible to someone who is at home and not in the office. A virtual private network (VPN) can be set up for this and allow employees to telecommute. This is called an extranet. An extranet is like an intranet in the sense that only authorized users of an organization can access it, however, it can use the internet to reach employees who are off the physical campus of an organization. It can be confusing to grasp the concepts of internet, intranet, and extranet, but you can clearly see how each offers unique advantages to the current world of business.
With the current networking technology in-place, a new type of application has surfaced and quickly made its way into corporations around the planet. Enterprise resource planning (ERP) is a software suite that manages multiple divisions of an organization through a network in a single database. ERP can seamlessly integrate human resources with accounting, marketing with sales, information technology with executive administration, etc. With thousands of employees on different continents accessing multi-user relational databases, network engineers and network administrators are necessary to ensure productive and secure data transfer occurs across such networks. Because of this, networking is now a major part of any information technology department for businesses…small, medium, and large.
II. Voice Communications
Up until the broadband revolution, the only computers that had high speed internet access were client computers of a client/server network (more on that later) with a single main internet connection such as that of ISDN, a T1, or a T3 connection. All telecommunications happened across phone lines. When cable and DSL modems made their way into consumer homes, a new type of voice communications became popular. It became possible to use a high speed internet connection for telephony. The technology is known as Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP). VOIP is a less expensive telecommunications option for large corporations with many phone lines. A digital VOIP Private Branch Exchange (PBX) system can really cut costs when properly implemented. VOIP is a great technology and is only made possible by networking. This increases the responsibility of the network engineer/administrator because now they must deal with both data and voice.
The early VOIP implementations were highly scrutinized because they didn’t offer the same Quality of Service (QoS) that standard land-lines offered. Also, there was a lack of features like call waiting, conference calling, call forwarding, etc. with early VOIP. Today, there has been major improvements to QOS and pretty much all features offered with old phone lines are now offered with VOIP. VOIP is transfered over ethernet cable and onto the internet the same way data is, therefore long distance communications cost the same as local calls. This presents a great threat to major telecommunications companies who are based on land line telephony.
III. Protocols
A protocol is best defined as the language spoken on a network, much like English, Spanish, or Chinese. When data leaves point A, it must be compiled into a standard so that it can be interpreted by point B which shares the same standard.
OSI
The International Standards Organization (ISO) created a protocol called the Open Systems Interconnect (OSI) model. There are not any implementations of the OSI because it is just a model framework used to build from. OSI has 7 layers:
7) Application Layer (top layer) - This layer represents the implementation of an application, such as a web browser or email application. It is used for programs specifically written to run over the network. It handles network access, flow control, and error recovery.
6) Presentation Layer - This layer handles encryption and authentication (character conversion, protocol conversion, and data compression)
5) Session Layer - This layer is responsible for confirming that one-on-one communication has been established. Think of when you pull up to the speaker/mic in a fast-food drive through and the teller says, “Can I take your order?”
4) Transport Layer - This layer manages the transmission of information. Think of a train how it is divided into equal train cars. This layer organizes the transportation of the data in a similar way. It provides a blueprint of how the data will be segmented.
3) Network Layer - This layer assigned an address to the data. The previous layer names the data but an address is required for proper connection and transmission. Back to the train analogy, this layer stamps an address on each train car.
2) Data Link Layer - Once a connection is made, the data packets are named, and each packet has an address, this layer allows for the transmission of the data. This is where the actual 1s and 0s travel through the medium. Back to the drive through analogy, this is where the teller hands you your food.
1) Physical Layer (bottom layer) - This layer is visible. It is whatever medium (wired or wireless) used to transmit the data. It can consist of cables, network cards, and network hardware.
The best way to remember the layers of OSI starting from the bottom is: “Please Do Not Throw Sausage Pizza Away”
TCP/IP
TCP/IP is an implementation of the OSI model and it is by far the most commonly used protocol on the internet and within organizations. The TCP/IP protocol only has 5 layers because it combines the application, presentation, and session layers into a single application or process layer. The other layers are mostly the same except the network layer is represented as the IP layer and the data link layer is called the network interface. Like I said, the OSI is a model and the TCP/IP is an implementation of the model.
Some common applications that use TCP/IP are SMTP, FTP, TELNET, and HTTP. On a TCP/IP network, nodes are assigned by 4 octets in the form of: XXX.XXX.XXX.XXX. Each octet tells what type of IP network you are on.
If the first octet is in the range of 1 and 126, you are on a large Class A network. If the first octet is between 128 and 191, then you are on a Class B network. If the first octet is between 192 and 223, then you are on a Class C network. If the first octet is between 224 and 239, then you are on a Class D network. Lastly, if the first octet is between 240 and 255, then you are on a Class E network. By the way, TCP/IP stands for Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol.
IV. Architecture
Network architecture is typically one of three designs or hybrids of the same. First, which is the oldest, is called a ring. A ring network is where all computers are connected to each other with no center-point. Each computer has an input/output and there is no begin/end to the network, just a loop. On this type of network, a computer transmits data which travels around the loop until it reaches its destination computer. Ring networks still exist today, although considered archaic. Some are called token-ring networks because a token is passed around the ring network so that only one computer transmits at a time. There was even an attempt to create a high-speed token-ring model by Cisco Systems, however, ethernet reigned superior.
The second type of network architecture is called a bus. A bus is just like a ring except there is a definite beginning and end. Just think of a horizontal line with 5 computers hooked up to it. Alone, this network type is also out-dated, however, when combined with the next type of network, is very common.
Last but not least is a star network. This is the most commonly used type of network today. A star network is when multiple computers are linked to a centralized location such as a server, hub, switch, router, etc. A branch of a star network can be arranged like a bus as mentioned above. A hub is a port where only two devices can communicate at once through it. A switch is a “smart-hub” where all devices can communicate at the same time. A router is a device that combines a switch with access to a large network such as that of the internet. Star networks make client/server computing a reasonable networking solution for large enterprise-level organizations.
V. Security
Network security has become a big issue amongst all networks. For wired networks, hardware features firewalls and standard information security practices such as software suites (anti-virus, anti-spyware, anti-spam, etc.) and encryption methods like DES, Triple DES, AES, RSA, etc. Wireless security is a different animal in itself. It presents a unique threat from someone within the proximity of the wireless network range. To fight this threat, wireless networks are encrypted within themselves. Wired Equivalent Privacy (WEP) used to be acceptable in the late 1990s, however, it is easy to break through with amateur software now. WEP uses a 40 or 104-bit key. Wi-Fi Protected Access (WPA) was then developed which features a 128-bit key. To this day, there has been no successful WPA hacks, however, enterprise IT professionals look down upon it as there is a better solution. WPA2 is a state-of-the-art wireless encryption method as it features the Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) and it is the standard for enterprise-level applications.
VI. Engineering
Network engineering is the practice of designing a network solution for a real world implementation. There are a few different levels of network engineering. First is a logical design. Just as architects create blue-prints of building designs, a network engineer should do the same for a network. It is sort of an artists sketch of the concepts used within the network. This demonstrates how the network will communicate not only with the hardware on the network, but also with the outside world. A great software tool for this is Microsoft Visio.
After a logical design is agreed upon, the next step is to create a physical design. An architect does this by creating a small scale-model of their design. A network engineer does this by creating a layout of where wires go, where they terminate, what computers are used, etc. After a solid logical and physical design of the network is in-place, next is to actually implement the design. This is where the wires are actually ran through walls and connected to the proper hardware devices. Network software is then configured (which can be Microsoft Server, Unix, device firmware, etc.) and the network becomes operational.
VII. Administration
After a network becomes operational, a network administrator (which can be a network engineer) maintains the network. Sometimes servers must be re-booted, cables go bad, or even the entire network must be re-booted. Sometimes a network is working perfect internally, but isn’t seeing the external internet. A network administrator’s duty is to make sure all systems are operational in this sense. Network engineering and network administration are crucial to any IT department whether it is a small or large organization.
VIII. Wrap Up
I would like to leave you with a video that is worth watching. It illustrates what goes on inside a network. It is called “Warriors of the Net” and it could be the best 13 minutes of your life if you like computer networking. Thanks for stopping by…
VIII. References
Image from Atlas Communications Inc.
Video from TNG Medialab found on YouTube.
South New Jersey Fishing Report ( Little Egg Artificial Reef )
Posted on August 16, 2008
Filed Under Jonathan Carr | Leave a Comment
TIME/DATE: 10AM to 1PM on Saturday, August 16, 2008
LOCATION:Little Egg Artificial Reef
GPS: 39.29″18.60N, 74.12″13.90W
CATCH: 5 Sea Bass, 12 Sea Robin
BAIT: Squid
,Berkley Saltwater Gulp
Rig: Single fluke hook (36″ leader) w/2oz round sinker or 3oz pyramid sinker
Method: Drifting
Water Depth: 55-65 ft.
Water Temperature: 71F
Weather Conditions: Sunny, Clear, 82F, 5Mph SW winds.
Seas: Calmest I have seen the Atlantic In-shore all summer. 1-2ft swells.
Summary:
The crew consisted of Paul, Ed, Mike, and myself. We departed at 8:30AM and arrived at the reef around 10AM. What a nice, calm, and relaxing ride it was! The Little Egg Artificial Reef was crowded with lots of boats ranging from small to large. Rumors have been flying around claiming the reefs have been “turned on” now that the water is finally above 70F. Well it sure was…
Boats all around us were pulling in nice sized Sea Bass. When we first arrived, a school of bait-fish was jumping next to us. Before we knew it we were pulling in Sea Robins at an annoying pace. In between all of them, were the 5 Sea Bass pictured above…what a great day of fishing!
What If……..
Posted on August 6, 2008
Filed Under Michael Paskel | 3 Comments
What if…….. By Michael J. Paskel
September 11th was pivotal in the history of the United States as it was the date that radical Islamic fundamentalism gouged out a deep hole in New York, Washington and Shanksville; as well as the hearts of all Americans. It served notice on the world that Islam was again a power to be reckoned with. But few recall the importance of that date in the history of the conflict in which we are now engaged.
On September 11th, 1683, King John Sobieski’s army broke the siege of the Hapsburg imperial capitol by the Ottomans and set in motion the great unraveling of Islamic political and military power and influence over the European continent. For the next 318 years that retreat continued and the western powers eventually carved up the last vestiges of this once colossal empire.
Had the siege held and Vienna fallen to the Turks, our civilization may well have looked much different today than it does. History is filled with such wispy tendrils of happenstance, what ifs and what might have beens.
While it was inevitable that someone would discover the Americas in the late fifteenth century, what providence drove the Spanish ships, led by Columbus, to our shores and not to the bottom of the Atlantic? How different might our constitution have been, defined as it was by the collective experience and wisdom of the people who risked their lives and that of their families, to claw out a desperate toe- hold on this continent? Had those experiences been changed ever so slightly, might not our laws have been forged in a way making them and us different as well?
Had Booth been a few minutes late to retrieve his mail on April 14th, 1865, he might not have learned of Lincoln’s attendance at Fords Theater that evening, and there wouldn’t have been a President Andrew Johnson to impeach in 1868.
Had Mohamed Atta cared more for his own mortality than for his religious zealotry, he would not have rained down hell onto our streets and 2,948 of our brothers and sisters would have simply gone home from work that afternoon, each stepping back into an unperturbed life.
These musings are disquieting. The possibilities reach exponentially into the future with unknowable affect. But the law of scale says what is true for a large thing is true for a small one. The point is undeniable. Every life, seared by the conflict in Iraq, touches every other life with which we are all bound up. Each of us is affected by it in ways that make us different than we would have been had it never happened. Frank Cappra’s “It’s A Wonderful Life” comes to mind.
Sure, Saddam might not have died as he did, but who is to say some degenerate underling, or power hungry Army officer wouldn’t have eventually introduced him to the business end of an AK-47?
And what if, instead of moldering away in some shallow grave in Tekret, he is sleeping in his own bed tonight? His reign of terror might not have ended, but then again the killing, now estimated at more than 300,000 has accelerated horribly since the U.S. invaded Iraq. The net number of deaths that has resulted must be higher than it would have been otherwise, and certainly, 4,100 of our countrymen would be celebrating the holidays, and birthdays and anniversaries with us instead of nourishing Mesopotamian soil with the blood of their sacrifices.
It pains me deeply to think of all the leaders, that will never lead—all the loves that will never blossom— all the children unnecessarily scarred— all the books that won’t be written and all of the pain that can never be alleviated, because of an unnecessary war against a non-existent threat. It is this lens that magnifies the tragedy that is our involvement in Iraq beyond measurable limits.
The war came home to us here in the Tennessee Valley recently with the news of the death of Lance Corporal Billy Koprince. His presence is missed in our community. I didn’t know him, but his tragic end effects me. All of us, are as diminished by his death, as we are unworthy of his sacrifice.
God be with his family.
The Willing Suspension Of Disbelief
Posted on August 5, 2008
Filed Under Michael Paskel | 1 Comment
“Despite what I view as your rather extraordinary efforts in your testimony both yesterday and today, I think that the reports that you provide to us really require the willing suspension of disbelief.” Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to General David Petraus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, Sept.11, 2007
That phrase, clinging to the threads of reason like a truth too large to pass unimpeded through the fabric which filters hope from unreality, has to be one of, if not the most, eloquent expressions of doubt in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary ever uttered. It was, to paraphrase George Orwell, “the bumping up against a hard reality by wishful thinking.”
Today, almost a year since that testimony was given and that assessment made, the numbers of deaths of U.S. service personnel in Iraq has ground to a near halt. That’s the good news. It leads some to ask why at last we can’t just declare victory and leave before the fratricide is renewed with bloody zeal. Others believe our leaving would be the flash point of hostilities, inflaming the renewal of war which our hard fought efforts seem to have tamped down at least for the time being.
The expression of doubt has a place in the toolbox of anyone who would weigh carefully the assessment of experts on subjects about which most of us by training or experience have too few tools at our disposal. Similar measure could have been taken of the pronouncements by The Bush Administration of the imperative to launch the pre-emptive war in April 2003 as a result of the attacks on the U.S. of Sept. 11, 2001 by Al Quida. Instead, the lemming syndrome prevailed and 4,000 U.S. lives and 2 Trillion dollars of our treasure have been wasted.
It is this debate, which we did not have before our invasion that will define our moral center. For we cannot long ignore the growing threat of radical Islamic fundamentalism and the terrorism which is it’s chief tactic, and not be guilty of inviting the next and perhaps far worse attack on our nation. While we grouse over whether to stay of leave Iraq, Osama Bin Laudin freely walks the caves and canyons of Afghanistan and Western Pakistan no doubt planning his next move against the West.
The resurgent Taliban represents the greatest singular threat to Western Civilization that has ever presented it’s self. The technology exists today that- should it fall into the hands of men like Atta or Bin Laudin- could unleash death and destruction on this planet that would bring about a total reshuffling of civilizations and human politics in favor of despots yet undefined and unknown We must make the choice of whether destroying a growing enemy which presents such a clear and present danger, is less important to us as a country than a single lame duck President salvaging his tattered reputation.
If such questions were raised about the wisdom of steaming full ahead through the icy black waters of the North Atlantic known to contain icebergs the night of April 14, 1912, history would be absent the tale of horror of the thousands who perished on the maiden voyage of Titanic.
What causes one to willingly suspend disbelief in the first place can be as simple as self-delusion and fear or as complex as an emotional investment in causes which require irrational commitment in order to see the investment to fruition, all evidence to the contrary not withstanding. Doubling down on a bad bet– pouring in good money after bad– only brings about a quicker arrival to an inevitability that a losing gambler finds unacceptable but cannot prevent.
And sometimes it’s due to an unimaginative approach or even an unwillingness to accept an apparent providential outcome.
In all fairness, athletes sometimes overcome great odds to achieve victory by the simple act of ignoring the defeat, which stares them in the face. Armies have for centuries overwhelmed and routed greater enemies by similar means. So what’s wrong with a little self-delusion from time to time as motivation for doing great things?
Nothing, so long as the avoidance of an unpalatable outcome
doesn’t lead to stepping off a cliff; dodging a broken shard of glass in the road is meaningless if it puts you in the path of a semi.
During the run up to the invasion of Iraq certain assumptions were made which orthodoxy required following to ends that brought more dead soldiers home in boxes from George Bush’s war than were necessary. And the failure to vigorously challenge this orthodoxy is the primary fault not of the media, though fail they did, but of the American people who’s skin was very much in this game.
If we are to prevail against Al Quida, we must commit more than the paltry numbers of troops and resources currently engaged in the hunt for Bin Laudin. This is the time for the American people to decide that the invasion and occupation of Iraq has been an unnecessary distraction from the struggle against radical Islamic fundamentalism and that our actions today and going forward will either be our finest hour in this century or will necessarily seal our fate and result in our being cast upon the trash heap of human history.
Global Warming: Or Is It Cooling?
Posted on July 28, 2008
Filed Under Michael Paskel | 2 Comments
I was informed this past week that a study by a right wing group had shown that global warming has in fact, been greatly exaggerated. According to my dearest friend and closest confidant of nearly 25 years who also happens to view the politics of this world from a polar opposite perspective, there is irrefutable evidence that the world is in fact growing cooler not warmer.
Imagine that!
I am left with somewhat the same befuddlement at looking at the same data and arriving at such differing conclusions, as I was after watching the O.J. Simpson jury return it’s shocking verdict and realize that good honest people can sometimes see different images while starring at the same object.
Most scientists with a thorough understanding of the problem say we can “AFFORD” (a demonstrably flawed use of the word “afford” when you consider the context but that’s the word used so I’ll simply repeat it here) can afford to put another 400 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere before we reach a point of no return. According to a study published last month in the journal Geophysical Research Letters this could happen within the next two decades.
The knowledge of this time line should hasten our switch from carbon-based fuels to clean renewable energy on a Manhattan Project scale.
However, with 700 billion tons of oil in the ground, another 500 billion in tar sands and natural gas, and coal making up the balance of nearly 3500 billion tons of carbon based fuel in reserve world wide, two things become abundantly clear. First, we have a sufficient supply of carbon-based fuels to cook our planet many times over. Second and perhaps more ominously, we show no inclination to move to carbon neutral energy while there is still a manageable window of opportunity to do so; not so long as that kind of fossil fuel supply is readily available.
It is more likely that we will rush headlong into consumption of all fossil fuels faster than we can adapt to non-carbon energy, tipping the balance of irreparable global warming, plunging the world into a cosmological catastrophe.
As a child, I was enthralled by the concept taught by my grammar school teachers, of plants and animals pirouetting in a delicate ecological ballet. Each time I exhaled into the air I put a small amount of CO 2 into the atmosphere. But that was OK, because outside on the playground there was a Maple tree that lived only because of the CO 2 it could absorb from the air around it. And guess what it expired as a waste product of its photosynthesis? Oxygen, the stuff I needed to sustain my life. Odd how all that worked out. So here we were, two distinct life forms -plants and animals- co-existing, each requiring from the other its necessary constituent breath of life. As long as we had trees and they had us, everything should work like…. milk and cookies.
But they also taught me that underground lay vast oceans of petroleum and continental shelves marbled with titanic veins of coal and tar sands, deposited there over unknowable eons of time. Enough that were it to be moved above the surface of the planet, it would ingest our atmosphere almost literally overnight and turn our beautiful blue planet into a global lake of hell fire, not that much different from the planet Venus.
No longer would the gentle face of mother Earth be splashed each night in moonlight during its passage beneath the great Terrene shadow. No longer could the oceans of liquid water and of turbulent gases of nitrogen and oxygen, wash and cleanse and heal our fragile eco-system. But, so long as that carbon were contained safely below ground, and with plants and animals sustaining each other above ground, our world could go on for millions of years as it had for billions before, with hardly a hiccup.
Yet for the last several centuries, our industrial revolution has been tearing earth inside out, disgorging ever larger and larger amounts of CO 2 into the thin envelope that is our atmosphere. The plants can no longer keep up with the amount of CO 2 that is filling the air. In fact, If we stopped polluting the atmosphere TODAY, if we didn’t put another single molecule of carbon into the air it would take plant life more than a thousand years to return the atmosphere to pre-industrialized levels.
I’m little concerned with the short-term benefits realized or the political imperative pursued by those interests that would drive the disinformation effort about global warming. It is what it is. But I am greatly concerned that a discerning public could look at the same peer reviewed scientific studies I’ve seen and which most scientists who’ve studied the issue have produced and yet still believe that switching to carbon-zero energy sources is an option that can be exercised after languid and interminable consideration.
Delay is a luxury the planet cannot AFFORD.
Long Beach Island (LBI) Charter Fishing (Tuna, Shark, Blues, Fluke)
Posted on July 27, 2008
Filed Under Jonathan Carr | 3 Comments
Long Beach Island (LBI), located in Southern New Jersey on the Atlantic Ocean offers some of the best inshore/offshore fishing on the entire east coast. The most common types of charter fishing are for Tuna, Shark, Bluefish (Blues), Striped Bass, Sea Bass, and Flounder (Fluke). There are many other types of fish in the Long Beach Island (LBI) area, but these are the most sought out game-fish.
Charter fishing is the concept of hiring a local/professional captain and possibly crew to take you fishing. They will provide you with everything you need along with a fully rigged boat. There is a great level of customization in charter fishing depending on what you want to do. In most cases, you can make special requests for food and drink and the captain will make sure it is cold and fresh when you step aboard. You can choose to fish in the back-bay/inlets, inshore (1-20 miles), or offshore (20+ miles). Here is a better explanation of the types of Long Beach Island (LBI) charter fishing:
OFFSHORE CHARTER FISHING
Offshore charter fishing is the most serious and intense form of Long Beach Island (LBI) charter fishing. Some trips only go for a few hours and some can be as long as 48 hours depending on what package you choose. These trips usually take you out to the Hudson Canyon, however, they are also known to fish other canyons as well. Either way, you are going out to where the water depth drops from 80 feet to hundreds of feet (which is about 60-80 miles from the coast of New Jersey). This drop-off is home to many Tuna, Mahi-mahi, Wahoo, Mako Shark, Marlin, and other billfish. This type of fishing is the most expensive form of charter fishing from Long Beach Island (LBI), but it can be the most rewarding.
INSHORE CHARTER FISHING
Inshore charter fishing is still in the ocean like offshore fishing, except it is closer to the shore. Inshore is considered anything within 20 miles from the coast. This type of charter fishing will be less expensive than offshore because it uses less gas and the tackle/gear is not as large and expensive. In these waters you will find Bluefish, Striped Bass, Sea Bass, and Fluke. Bluefish like to circle the north and south ridge (pictured above). The ridges are two flat-top mini-mountains about 14 miles off the coast of Long Beach Island. The water is about 80 feet deep all around them and the top of each ridge is about 40-50 feet from the water surface. The two ridges provides a safe haven for Bluefish, Bonito, Albacore, and small football-sized baby tuna. Sea Bass and Fluke can be found on the many wrecks that are scattered in the inshore waters. There are also artificial reefs which are a part of the Garden State Artificial Reef Program. Striped Bass can be found closer to the shore. They like to pin local bait-fish in the shallow water. This type of fishing is the kind I do most and it will never get old.
On Long Beach Island, there are several party boats that go inshore fishing. These boats are as large as 100 feet and can take as many as 100 people at a time. Here are a few of them:
BACK-BAY/INLET CHARTER FISHING
If your stomach cannot handle being out in the ocean, you might want to stick to the back-bays or the inlets when you go charter fishing. You can still catch all the fish listed in inshore charter fishing, however, they might be a little smaller. You don’t get the Atlantic Ocean experience, however, this type of trip might be exactly what the doctor ordered for you. In addition to the game-fish you may find here, there is also excellent crabbing and clamming. The Blue crab (aka Blueclaw) is famous in the Long Beach Island area for having very sweet meat. The Little Neck Clam is also adored for its sweet tasting qualities. I would suggest trying a few of these trips before you try anything inshore or offshore.
LONG BEACH ISLAND (LBI) CHARTER FISHING
No matter what your dream-fishing trip is, a charter fishing organization on Long Beach Island (LBI) will be able to fulfill it. Remember that you should always give a 20% gratuity on top of the listed rate. Tips make up the primary income for crew members and mates of charter fishing boats. They will bust their butt to make sure you have a great trip, therefore you should return to favor. Here are a few charter fishing organizations in the Long Beach Island Area:
BEACH HAVEN CHARTER FISHING ASSOCIATION
Image (top) courtesy of Jeff’s Weather Blog
A South Jersey Canoe Adventure
Posted on July 23, 2008
Filed Under Jonathan Carr | 5 Comments
This past Sunday, we all celebrated a great friend’s birthday (Happy Birthday!) by meeting up for a canoe adventure through the pine barrens in southern New Jersey. I must say, this was one of the most relaxing experiences I ever had. The streams and forests were absolutely beautiful and the wildlife was simply amazing. Our trip lasted about 4 hours total (a little over 3 hours of paddling and a little under 1 hour of stopping, resting, eating, drinking, etc). The water level was a little on the low side which made for some frustrating bottom-outs and the temperature was easily above 90 degrees fahrenheit. Combine that with the fact that I had no clue what I was doing and could not grasp the concept of turning, and my fiance (who shared a canoe with me) was ready to kill me…lol. After a while though, we got in the swing of things and finished strong. The people we were with (pictured above) have grown to become my closest friends in life (where the heck was Petro and Bones that day?) I can always count on a good time whenever we get together. Some of us are newely aquainted, some call ourselves B-Court, and others have just plain old been around forever. No matter how we know each other there is one thing that will always remain certain: Good times will forever be our way.
The place we went to for this canoe trip was Pine Barrens Canoe Rental.
Images courtesy of a friend
South New Jersey Fishing Report (Ocean County - Manahawkin Bay)
Posted on July 21, 2008
Filed Under Jonathan Carr | 6 Comments
TIME/DATE: 7AM to 11AM on Saturday, July 19, 2008
LOCATION:Manahawkin Bay. Just off the LB Marker (the old 72 Marker).
GPS: 39.33″58.81N, 74.15″26.85W
CATCH: 20 Flounder (14 throw-backs, 6 keepers as seen above).
BAIT: Clams, Squid, Spearing (Menidia), Berkley Saltwater Gulp
Rig: Single fluke hook (36″ leader) w/2oz round sinker
Method: Drifting
Water Depth: 17-28 ft.
Water Temperature: 76F
Weather Conditions: Sunny, Clear, 93F, 9Mph SE winds.
Seas: We were protected by the island so it was very glassy. Other than that, just your normal mid-summer Barnegat/Manahawkin bay 1 foot boat chop.
Summary:
There were four of us including my father, two friends of the family, and myself. We left the back-lagoon docks of Beach Haven West in Manahawkin a little after 6AM. We arrived at the LB marker a little before 7AM. For those of you who haven’t fished in this area for a while, the LB marker used to be number 72. Just to the SE side of this marker there is a trench that runs about 300 yards long x 100 yards wide. In here the depth is about 17-28 feet and it is crawling with great fish. We put four lines out using clams, squid, glass minnows, and Gulp. The tide was coming in strong so we drifted very fast. We could feel the sinkers dragging on the bottom. We would idle against the tide until we reached the beginning of the trench and then drift over the entire trench until we hit the sand bar on the other side. We did this about 6 times as each pass gave us about 30-40 minutes of drifting. If you go to this location, you will have to figure out the drift and line yourself up so you do the same. It all depends if the tide is coming in or going out.
The best overall combination for bait was a Berkley Saltwater Gulp in the shape of a baby squid with a Spearing. The clams and squid did okay, but not as good. We got hits every 5-10 seconds the entire time. A baby Sea Bass hits like a machine gun (many times very hard) but a flounder just takes it and swims away (much smoother). Once in a while a Sea Robin, Skate, Dogfish, or other kinds of ”junk fish” will grab a hook, but they have a distinctly different feel (real jerky and inconsistent). There aren’t too many large Sea Bass in the bay. You can find the big ones out on the Garden State Reef.
So we caught about 20 Flounder all together, but 16 of them we had to throw back due to the 18 inch minimum limit imposed by the New Jersey Department of Fish, Game, and Wildlife. The ones we kept are pictured above. The wooden slab they are laying on is exactly 18 inches wide to give you an idea of how long the fish are. The 18 inch limit is sort of a pain. I remember when it was only 14, which would of given us well over 10 keepers, however, it is good to see the Flounder population in the bay so high again.
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